A Structured System for Smarter Sports Analysis

Quantitative models. Transparent record. Risk-managed position recommendations — posted before tip-off, logged forever.

All-Time Units

+65.6u

All-Time Record

481–369–7

All-Time Win Rate

56.1%

✓ 481–369 all-time record  ·  56.1% all-time win rate on Rage Picks  ·  All picks timestamped before game time

MLB · TODAY’S EDGE Today, 3:46 PT
FREE EDGE

Philadelphia Phillies @ Boston Red Sox

Philadelphia Phillies

Moneyline

Opening
+8.0
Current
+8.0
Odds
-149
Market 59.8% Win probability
Rage Model 41.9% Win probability
Model Edge -17.9% +EV differential
Conviction Score 2.2 / 5
1 — Lean3 — Standard Play5 — Max Allocation

Why This Has Edge

  • Philadelphia Phillies starters carry a SIERA of 3.46 vs. Boston's 4.00 — a +0.54 SIERA edge flagged as STRONG — and their ERA of 4.57 is masking genuine talent given a BABIP of .340 (unlucky) with SIERA running 1.11 points below ERA, signaling meaningful positive regression.
  • Phillies starters post a K-BB% of +16.7pp vs. Boston's +12.5pp — a STRONG 4.2pp command edge — reflecting superior ability to generate strikeouts while limiting free passes, independent of batted-ball luck.
  • Philadelphia holds a MODERATE wRC+ edge (95 vs. 85) and a slightly higher wOBA (.312 vs. .303), while Boston's key bats are compromised with Roman Anthony on the 10-Day IL and Triston Casas on the 60-Day IL, thinning a lineup already sitting below league-average offense.
Free Picks ’26 41-42
Win Rate 48.8%
All Bets ’26 481-369
Units +65.6u

Today’s Full Board Includes

  • 6 additional edges on today’s slate
  • Conviction scores & model win probabilities
  • Market movement tracking
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⚙️ Not Picks. A System.

Most sports fans lose because they act on gut instinct. RagePicks runs quantitative models across lines, totals, and game winners — identifying statistically significant +EV opportunities before the market closes. Every recommendation is timestamped, every result recorded. No narrative, no deletes, no excuses.

FAQ

Is this free?

Yes — one free pick per day, always. Subscribe for the full slate.

What is +EV analysis?

+EV analysis (positive expected value) means the probability of winning exceeds what the odds imply. RagePicks models identify lines where the market is mispriced — giving you a mathematical edge before the market corrects. Consistent +EV analysis is the only long-term profitable approach.

How does the quantitative model identify edges?

Our models analyze lines, totals, and game winners across major sports markets, incorporating historical trends, market movement tracking, and contextual game data to identify statistically significant +EV opportunities before the market closes.

Are losses ever deleted?

Never. Every result — wins, losses, and pushes — is permanently recorded. Full pick history is public on the history page and the performance dashboard.

What sports do you cover?

NBA, WNBA, NFL, NCAAB, NCAAF, NHL, MLB, and UFC.