The RAGE Model

Recursive  Algorithm  Generating  Edge

Every pick is scored across universal and sport-specific signals. Higher conviction = stronger edge vs the market.

View Today’s Slate →

Universal Signals

Applied to every sport, every pick.

Line moves significantly in pick's favor
High Impact
Market signals concentrated on pick side
High Impact
Line moves in pick's favor
Medium Impact
Opponent on unfavorable travel schedule
Low Impact
Key starter confirmed out
Penalty · High
Significant line movement against pick
Penalty · High
Key starter listed questionable
Penalty · Med
Line movement against pick
Penalty · Med
Pick team on tough travel schedule
Penalty · Med

Sport-Specific Signals

Proprietary data feeds layered on top of universal signals.

NFLnflverse/nflreadpy
Net EPA/play edge ≥0.15 (pass+rush)
High
Turnover differential edge ≥1.0/game
High
Red-zone TD% edge ≥10pp
Medium
Third-down conversion edge ≥7pp
Medium
Net EPA/play against pick ≤-0.10
Penalty · Med
2026 season gate: Aug 6. Requires ≥3 games played per team (early-season EPA is noisy). Signal weights are proprietary and updated seasonally.
NCAAFCFBD
SP+ edge ≥5 pts vs. market spread
High
Adj. EPA/play edge ≥0.12 (off+def)
High
Success rate edge ≥8pp
High
Explosive play rate edge ≥6pp
Medium
Adj. EPA/play against pick ≤-0.10
Penalty · Med
≤3 games played — early season noise
Penalty · High
2026 season gate: Aug 29. Signal weights are proprietary and updated seasonally.
MLBFanGraphs
Offensive production edge (wRC+)
High
K-BB% starter edge ≥4pp
High
Bullpen regression edge (xFIP)
Medium
ERA regression signal (SIERA)
Medium
Barrel%+HardHit% contact edge
Medium
ERA likely regresses up (Luck)
Penalty · Med
Signal weights are proprietary and updated seasonally.
TENNISMatchstats
Surface win% edge (hard/clay/grass)
High
Ranking gap & career-high rank
High
Recent form (last 10 W/L)
Medium
Grand Slam & Masters finals record
Medium
Career record & titles won
Low
Playing on non-favorite surface
Penalty · Med
ATP & WTA. Signal weights are proprietary and updated seasonally.
NCAABTorvik/ESPN
EM advantage ≥8.0 (SOS-adj.)
High
Pick trending up (EM, last 10)
High
Defensive eFG% edge ≥4pp
Medium
Opponent trending down (last 10)
Medium
Turnover rate edge ≥4pp
Low
Road offense drop ≥5 pts vs. pick
Penalty · Med
Signal weights are proprietary and updated seasonally.
NBA / WNBANBA Stats API
NBA net rtg ≥10 / WNBA ≥4
High
Defensive rating edge ≥5 pts
High
True shooting % edge ≥3%
Medium
Shot quality (eFG%/AST%/REB%)
Medium
Travel fatigue & back-to-back
Penalty · Med
Signal weights are proprietary and updated seasonally.
NHLMoneyPuck
Goalie confirmed out
High
xG% edge ≥0.05
High
Opponent high PDO (luck)
High
HD chances edge
Medium
Special teams (PP%/PK%/SHG)
Medium
High PIM + weak PK (penalty risk)
Penalty · Med
Signal weights are proprietary and updated seasonally.
UFC/BOXINGUFCStats · Odds API
Strike accuracy edge
High
Pick undervalued by market line
High
Finish / KO rate edge
Medium
Takedown volume edge (UFC)
Medium
Late replacement / short notice
Penalty · High
Signal weights are proprietary and updated seasonally.
SOCCERUnderstat · Kaggle
xG differential edge (last 5)
High
Market line vs conviction score gap
High
Form & H2H WC record (W-D-L)
High
Clean sheet % & host nation edge
Medium
No Understat data (<5 matches)
Penalty · High
Heavy favorite (implied >75%)
Penalty · Med
Active Jun 11 - Jul 19, 2026.

Conviction Scale

How we translate edge scores into position sizing.

—
< 1.5
No Play
—
B
1.5 – 2.9
Lean
0.5 unit
B+
3.0 – 3.9
Standard Play
1 unit
A
4.0 – 4.5
High Conviction
1.5 units
A+
4.6 – 5.0
Max Allocation
2 units