The RAGE Model

Every pick is scored across universal and sport-specific signals. Higher conviction = stronger edge vs the market.

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Universal Signals

Applied to every sport, every pick.

Line moves significantly in pick's favor
High Impact
Market signals concentrated on pick side
High Impact
Line moves in pick's favor
Medium Impact
Opponent on unfavorable travel schedule
Low Impact
Key starter confirmed out
Penalty · High
Significant line movement against pick
Penalty · High
Key starter listed questionable
Penalty · Med
Line movement against pick
Penalty · Med
Pick team on tough travel schedule
Penalty · Med

Sport-Specific Signals

Proprietary data feeds layered on top of universal signals.

NCAABTorvik/ESPN
EM advantage (quality SOS)
High
Pick trending up (last 10)
High
Opponent trends down (last 10)
Medium
Altitude disadvantage
Low
Signal weights are proprietary and updated seasonally.
NBA / WNBANBA Stats API
Large net rating edge ≥10 pts
High
Defensive rating edge ≥5 pts
High
True shooting % edge ≥3%
Medium
Shot quality edge (eFG%, AST%, REB%)
Medium
Travel fatigue & back-to-back
Penalty · Med
Signal weights are proprietary and updated seasonally.
NHLMoneyPuck
Goalie confirmed out
High
xG% edge ≥0.05
High
Opponent high PDO (luck regression)
High
HD chances edge
Medium
Special teams edge (PP%, PK%, SHG)
Medium
High PIM + weak PK (penalty risk)
Penalty · Med
Signal weights are proprietary and updated seasonally.
MLBFanGraphs
Offensive production edge (wRC+)
High
K-BB% starter edge ≥4pp
High
Bullpen regression edge (xFIP)
Medium
ERA regression signal (SIERA)
Medium
Contact quality edge (Barrel% + HardHit%)
Medium
ERA likely regresses up (Luck)
Penalty · Med
Signal weights are proprietary and updated seasonally.
UFC/BOXINGUFCStats · Odds API
Strike accuracy edge
High
Pick undervalued by market line
High
Finish / KO rate edge
Medium
Late replacement / short notice
Penalty · High
Signal weights are proprietary and updated seasonally.
WNBAWNBA Stats API
Net rating edge ≥4 pts
High
Defensive rating edge
High
True shooting % edge
Medium
Travel & back-to-back fatigue
Penalty · Med
Signal weights are proprietary and updated seasonally.

Conviction Scale

How we translate edge scores into position sizing.

—
< 2.5
No Play
—
B
2.5 – 2.9
Lean
0.5 pts
B+
3.0 – 3.9
Standard Play
1 pt
A
4.0 – 4.5
High Conviction
1.5 pts
A+
4.6 – 5.0
Max Allocation
2 pts