Unit Sizing: A Risk Management Framework
Units are a standardized way to measure performance independent of dollar amounts. A bettor with a $500 bankroll and a bettor with a $10,000 bankroll can both follow the same unit-based system and compare results meaningfully.
1. Setting Your Unit Size
Your unit size is derived from your total bankroll — the amount you have strictly set aside for this purpose, separate from living expenses.
Standard formula: 1 unit = 2–3% of total bankroll
| Bankroll | 2% unit | 3% unit |
|---|---|---|
| $2,500 | $50 | $75 |
| $5,000 | $100 | $150 |
| $10,000 | $200 | $300 |
| $25,000 | $500 | $750 |
| $50,000 | $1,000 | $1,500 |
| $125,000 | $2,500 | $3,750 |
Start at 1–2% if you are new to tracking performance. Move to 3% only after establishing a verified edge over a meaningful sample (100+ positions minimum).
2. Position Sizing by Conviction
Each pick carries a conviction score (1.5–5.0) derived from edge signals, sharp money, and model confidence — not a manual rating. That score maps directly to unit sizing:
| Score | Grade | Units | % of Bankroll |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4.6 – 5.0 | A+ — Max Allocation | 2u | 5% |
| 4.0 – 4.5 | A — High Conviction | 1.5u | 3–4% |
| 3.0 – 3.9 | B+ — Standard Play | 1u | 2–3% |
| 1.5 – 2.9 | B — Lean | 0.5u | 1–1.5% |
| < 1.5 | No Play | Pass | — |
Never exceed 5% of bankroll on a single position regardless of conviction score. No single game should have meaningful impact on your overall bankroll.
3. Staying Consistent
The value of unit tracking is consistency. Common mistakes that break the system:
Mistake: Adjusting unit size after a losing week.
Fix: Re-evaluate only after 3+ months OR when bankroll changes by 25–50%.
Mistake: Increasing size to recover losses.
Fix: Flat sizing protects you during cold streaks. The math works over large samples, not single games.
Mistake: Using different sizes for different sports.
Fix: One unit size across all sports. Conviction score handles the rest.
4. Automatic Scaling
As your bankroll grows or shrinks, recalculate:
- Starting bankroll: $1,000 → 1 unit = $20
- After +50% growth: $1,500 → 1 unit = $30
- After -30% drawdown: $700 → 1 unit = $14
This naturally reduces exposure during cold streaks and scales up during winning runs without requiring active decisions.
RagePicks tracks all results in units so performance is comparable regardless of individual bankroll size.
For entertainment purposes only. Not financial advice.